Thiel Reveals All

The Edge Effect

^{Read time: 2 min 33 sec | September 19th, 2024}

Welcome back 👋

Peter Thiel gave a talk on the All-In Podcast five days ago, sharing some valuable insights I found interesting.

Today’s Insights

• His Involvement in the 2024 Election

• The Current State of AI

• Stagnation in the US

Why He’s Not Financially Participating in the 2024 Election

Peter Thiel, while supporting Trump and J.D. Vance, has chosen not to make political donations this time but backs them in other ways. He predicts Trump will win by a large margin but expects disappointment due to negative sentiment surrounding the candidates.

Thiel's main concerns are the decline in election transparency, the U.S. deficit, and rising geopolitical tensions. He hopes Trump can address most of these issues.

“I don’t think you can use the word cheat, or stolen, but you can say that they fortify the election so you don’t get cancelled. If it’s a razor-thin election and Kamala decides to ‘fortify’ it, I think she’ll win.”

On the U.S. Relationship with China and Defending Taiwan

He was a little reluctant to discuss this, but Thiel believes the U.S. strategy of keeping its stance on Taiwan ambiguous is the smartest way to avoid conflict with China. He warns that tensions could spark serious economic and global consequences.

“We have to start by admitting that China believes the Taiwan conflict is happening, but if people like you are constantly saying ‘we just need to have some happy talk,’ that’s a recipe for WW3.”

He also shared a conversation with the CEO of TikTok, Shou Zi Chew.

“I met the TikTok CEO a year ago and told him, ‘You don’t need to worry about the U.S., we’re never going to do anything about TikTok—we’re too incompetent. But if I were you, I would get out of China because TikTok WILL be banned within 24 hours after the invasion of Taiwan.”

He responded, “We’ve done simulations, and there are many companies in World War I and World War II that managed to sell products to both sides.”

The State of AI: Similar to the Internet in 1999

Peter thinks AI has now become a buzzword that makes him want to run away (in most cases). He compares it to other overhyped terms like Big Data and cloud computing.

“Making money in AI is confusing. AI in 2024 is like the internet in 1999. It’s big, it’s going to be important, and it will transform the world not in 6 months but in 20 years. In AI, Nvidia is making 100% of the profits and everyone else is losing money.”

Thiel highlighted how Nvidia has created a monopoly in AI, making it the key player as the world shifts towards AI-driven industries.

Innovation Stagnation in the U.S.

Peter Thiel argues that innovation mainly comes from small companies, not universities or governments.

He highlighted tech progress in AI and crypto but sees stagnation in fields involving physical goods, blaming over-regulation and increased risk aversion after the world wars.

Thiel also notes a decline in technological ambition in the U.S. since the 1960s, though the country remains a leader in innovation.

“I believe in human agency. Extreme optimism, extreme pessimism, they’re both just excuses for laziness.”

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Thank you for reading i look forward to seeing you again!

Thomas 🚀

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